Analyzing FIFA World Cup formats

For the 2022 Qatar World Cup, teams were seeded based on FIFA rankings into four pots, with the host plus the top seven in Pot 1, and others divided accordingly. However, for the 2026 World Cup, I need to remember that the format has changed. Initially, there were plans for 16 groups of 3, but now it's 12 groups of 4, which requires four pots of 12 teams, including the three hosts and top-ranked teams. The intercontinental playoff has also changed, with 6 teams vying for 2 spots.Exploring the 2026 Intercontinental Playoffs

For the 2026 World Cup, the intercontinental playoff tournament includes 6 teams competing for 2 spots, with one from each confederation except UEFA, and an extra from CONCACAF because they’re hosting. The top two seeded teams based on FIFA rankings get a bye to the second round, where winners will compete for the World Cup slots. Interestingly, teams qualifying via playoffs won't automatically be placed in Pot 4 like in 2022; instead, they'll be seeded based on rankings at a later date.Examining the 2026 World Cup Draw

For 2026, there’s a possibility that the playoffs will finish before the draw, allowing winners to be seeded accurately based on their rankings. I read that some Italian media suggests FIFA might change the rules so that teams entering through playoffs aren’t automatically placed in Pot 4. Historically, during 2010-2018, playoff placeholders were unknown. For example, in 2022, due to delays like the Ukraine war, teams in some paths weren't known before the draw, resulting in placeholders being assigned to Pot 4.Discussing Seeding Proposals for 2026

The proposal is to seed playoff winners based on their rankings to ensure fairer grouping during the draw. Without knowing specifics, I think this change aims to avoid penalizing higher-ranked teams that qualify through playoffs, particularly since being placed in Pot 4 can be disadvantageous. This could help reduce extreme "groups of death." I might want to check if the user is interested in more details about the format, current rules, or qualifying slots for UEFA in 2026, which include 16 direct berths and determining the last four through playoffs.

要点如下：

• 变化方向：FIFA正讨论把“附加赛晋级队一律放第4档”的做法取消，改为按FIFA排名（设定截止日）正常分档。这样通过欧足联附加赛或跨洲附加赛出线的强队，不会再被强行压到第4档。
• 背景原因：卡塔尔世界杯抽签时，跨洲附加赛和部分欧附加赛尚未结束，只能用占位符统一丢进第4档，导致分组失真、强队扎堆的概率上升。
• 可能实施方式（待官宣）：
  1. 推迟正式抽签到全部附加赛结束，再按排名分档；或
  2. 抽签时给每条附加赛路径预设分档，最终赢家继承该分档（规则更复杂）。
• 潜在影响：更符合实力的分组结构；通过附加赛晋级的高排名球队将获益；“死亡之组”概率降低；第1/第2档门槛相对抬高。
• 适用场景：预计将用于2026世界杯（48队、12组×4队）。欧足联附加赛会产生额外席位，跨洲附加赛也会产生名额；3个东道主在第1档，其余按排名入档。具体排名截止日与抽签时间表待FIFA最终文件。

需要我基于当前FIFA排名做一版“按新思路”与“旧规则”的分档对比模拟，看看哪些潜在附加赛球队的档位会改变吗？